Emerging Economy Elections

2024 is an exceptional year of elections, most in the developing world. Democracy has been in retreat globally over the last decade. But recent elections in several major emerging economies have shown that democracy is more resilient than sometimes thought. 

Surprise Indian Election Result

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP emerged from India’s elections last week as the largest party, but failed to secure the 272 seats needed for outright victory. Modi not only failed to meet the target the BJP had set of 370 seats, but fell back significantly from their 303 seats in the last election. Opposition parties who looked disorganised and on the back foot performed better than predicted by the (notoriously unreliable) Indian polls, forcing Modi into a coalition with his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies.

It is the first time since 2014 that the party has been unable to govern alone, piercing the aura of supremacy that Modi has built up and demonstrating that his self-confident, upbeat Hindu nationalist campaign did not resonate with large parts of the population in more mixed areas of the country, where bread and butter local issues proved decisive.

The outcome is good news for Indian democracy. There were legitimate concerns about what a large BJP majority would mean for the authoritarian tendencies of Modi. It is a significant setback for Modi, but it is too early to assume he is on borrowed time. He is only the second Prime Minister to secure three consecutive terms in office, and the opposition Congress Party - which has ruled for much of India’s modern history - still secured fewer than half the seats of the BJP. 

It will, however, complicate some of the economic measures, particularly in relation to land and labour market reform, which India will need if Modi wants to continue growing India’s industrial sector. 

President Obrador’s Protégé Wins in Mexico

Claudia Sheinbaum of the left-wing Morena party won the presidential election to become Mexico’s first female leader, having secured 59.1% of the vote after an extremely bloody run-up to the elections. Sheinbaum succeeds her political mentor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and has promised to continue his agenda - “more rights, a welfare state, education, health, access to housing, and that a living wage is a right, not a privilege”. Markets are concerned that Sheinbaum will extend AMLO’s state-centric economic approach and entrench the party’s dominance of Mexican politics in ways unhealthy for democracy. On the face of it, however, Sheinbaum does not have the pedigree of a national-populist - her previous roles include working as an author for the IPCC.

ANC Fails to Secure a Majority

These two major emerging economy elections follow those of South Africa two weeks ago and Indonesia earlier this year. In South Africa, the ANC comprehensively lost its majority, slumping to around 40% of the vote. When apartheid ended in 1990, the advent of ‘normal’ politics, with non-ANC parties progressively growing in importance, was seen as inevitable if the country remained a functioning democracy. That in itself, however, was not inevitable; and while it has taken longer than anticipated, it is testament to the strength of South Africa’s democracy that it has happened.

There are major questions about what happens next in all of these countries. For example in South Africa, what coalition can the ANC form and will Zuma’s party resort to violence? In Mexico will Sheinbaum extend AMLO‘s approach or move towards the centre? But in these recent elections the incumbents and main opposition have accepted the results and are getting on with the business of forming a government. Democracy in these major emerging economies may be imperfect, but is functioning. It remains to be seen whether the same holds true in the most important elections this year in the US.

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