With former President Donald Trump’s sentencing for his conviction on hush money payment charges now delayed until after the election and no prospect of trials getting underway any time soon on any of the three other sets of criminal indictments he faces, tonight’s debate with Vice President Kamala Harris is the last scheduled event that could change this most unpredictable of Presidential elections. And as the two candidates prepare for this high stakes moment with their advisers, the election currently looks like going down to the wire.

Harris replacing Biden has got Democrats back in the race, but some in the media have oversold her prospects

A couple of months ago in the wake of President Joe Biden’s catastrophic performance in his debate with Trump, it looked like Trump had the election sown up. However, Harris replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket has turned things on their head. For a few weeks, she had the most-coveted asset in any election: momentum. And Trump was clearly rattled by the sudden change in his fortunes, questioning her ethnicity and accusing her of faking the size of the crowds at her events rather than sticking to the issues on which she is vulnerable: the border, the cost of living and some of the things she said when running for the Democratic nomination in 2020. The media - always keen to see a close contest - talked up her momentum, ignoring some of the underlying indicators that suggested Trump was still very much in it. And sure enough there have been signs in the last week or two that her momentum has stalled and that, while she has certainly got the Democrats back in the game, the race is a toss up.

So where exactly do things stand now?

As of this morning, Harris is 2.8 percentage points ahead in 538.com’s rolling average of the national polls, but national polls can only tell us so much - as Al Gore and Hilary Clinton found, the electoral system the US uses for Presidential elections means you can win the popular vote but not win the election (for those not familiar with it, each state plus Washington DC gets a certain number of representatives in an Electoral College roughly based on their respective populations; in 48 of the 50 states, it’s winner-takes-all - the candidate who gets the most votes gets all of that state’s Electoral College representatives; in Maine and Nebraska, candidates get one representative for each Congressional district they win and extra representatives if they win state-wide; to be elected President, you need the support of 270 of the 538 representatives in the Electoral College). Most states are either solidly Democrat or solidly Republican; the result is determined in a handful of swing states, which this time round look like being the Mid West states of Michigan [15 Electoral College votes], Pennsylvania [19 votes] and Wisconsin [10 votes] and the Sun Belt states of Arizona [11 votes], Georgia [16 votes], Nevada [6 votes] and North Carolina [16 votes] (and if the result is really close, Maine’s second district and Nebraska’s second district, each worth one Electoral College vote).

Harris is currently ahead by one percentage point or less in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and by between two and three points in Michigan and Wisconsin; Trump is ahead by one percentage point or less in Arizona and Georgia. In other words, all seven states are currently within the margin of error.

Reasons for the Harris campaign to feel optimistic

Harris raised $361 million last month, $230 million more than Trump. It leaves her with $110 million more cash on hand than him. Campaigns typically raise more every month as election day approaches, but Trump’s August number ($130 million) was less than he raised in July ($139 million) - and much lower than he raised in August 2020 ($210 million). Trump’s lacklustre fundraising is interesting because it is at odds with the polling. And of course Harris’ fundraising success means she is currently able to out spend Trump - she has more offices and staff in the swing states, and more television, radio and digital ads booked.

The enthusiasm of Democrat voters has been transformed by Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket and is at levels not seen in either party since Obama’s first campaign. For the first time in a long time, Democrats are now more enthusiastic than Republicans about their candidate.

If Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin then she has multiple routes to victory: Pennsylvania on its own would be enough or any two of the remaining four states apart from the two smallest ones, Arizona and Nevada.

The results of recent primaries in Washington state suggest a roughly four-point Democratic lead in the national popular vote - slightly bigger than in 2020 (Washington uses a top two primary system in which candidates of both parties appear on the same ballot paper rather than having registered Democrats electing the Democrat candidate and registered Republicans electing the Republican candidate, thereby providing a useful barometer of public opinion).

Reasons for the Trump campaign to feel optimistic

Trump may be narrowly behind in the national polls and in most of the seven swing states, but there’s plenty of other polling which suggests he is in a strong position:

• His approval rating is better than it was at this point in either 2016 or 2020.

• He leads on immigration (53% to 42%) and the economy (56% to 40%). 

• This might surprise some British readers, but voters see him as closer to the centre than Harris - despite her efforts to portray herself as a centrist, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found nearly half of voters say she’s too liberal or progressive.

• That same New York Times/Siena College poll found 51% of voters see Trump as representing major change whereas only 25% think the same of Harris. That’s a big problem given that 61% of voters say they want major change - and it explains why the Harris campaign has been trying to frame Trump as the incumbent, arguing that the election offers a chance to turn the page on him.

• A Democratic-funded poll released on the sidelines of their Convention showed that Trump holds advantages on the attributes that historically have been most closely correlated with vote choice: which candidate is up to the job of president, has the right vision for the country and is a strong leader.

 In addition:

• The prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza are not looking good (a ceasefire would make it easier for Harris to turnout Muslims and progressives).

• The Electoral College marginally favours the Republicans because smaller states - most of which the Republicans tend to win - get slightly more representation than their population deserves (which is why Gore and Clinton lost despite narrowly winning the popular vote).

• The polls under-estimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 and may well be doing so again.

Bottom line: it is going to come down to a few thousand voters in each of the swing states

Relatively fewer voters change their mind from election to election in the US - in the last six Presidential elections, the Republicans have never got less than 45.6% of the vote and never got more than 50.7%; the Democrats have never got less than 48.2% and never got more than 52.9%. And as discussed above, the electoral system means that it is only swing voter in the seven swing states whose votes really matter. It is going to come down to a few thousand voters in each of those states. In 2020, Trump would have won if he had got just 44,000 more votes in the right places (Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin) - and this election feels closer than 2020.

The clock is ticking

Unlike in the UK, most people in the US vote before election day. The US Census estimates that in 2020 69.4% of votes were cast by mail or early voting. In other words, if this race is going to change, it needs to happen soon; by early November, most people will already have voted.

Don’t just focus on the Presidency

The media focus too much on the Presidency and not enough on the Senate and the House - from a business perspective, it matters whether Harris or Trump have free rein to do what they want or whether they are constrained by the other party controlling the Senate and/or the House. There are six possible permutations:

• a Democrat clean sweep;

• Harris as President and a Democrat House, but a Republican Senate;

• Harris as President and a Democrat Senate, but a Republican House (essentially the status quo, but swapping Biden for Harris);

• Trump as President and a Republican Senate, but a Democrat House;

• Trump as President and a Republican House, but a Democrat Senate; and

• a Republican clean sweep.

The Democrats and their allies currently have 51 of the 100 seats in the Senate. That means they can’t afford to lose any seats if Trump wins the White House and only one seat assuming Harris wins (if the Senate is 50:50, the Vice President has the casting vote). That’s a tough ask given the seats up for election this time round - they have to defend five seats in marginal states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and three in ‘red’ states (Montana, Ohio and West Virginia) and there are no marginal Republican seats for them to attack. They are almost certain to lose the seat in West Virginia because their incumbent is not standing for re-election, so that means they will lose the Senate if Trump wins the White House and even if Harris wins they have to win all seven of the other marginal seats.

The Republicans currently have a majority in the House of Representatives, but they can only afford to lose three of their 221 seats. In practice, whichever party wins the Presidency is likely to also win the House on their presidential candidate’s coattails - but whoever wins, they won’t win by much: as a result of gerrymandering, there are relatively few marginal districts.

All of which means the two most likely scenarios are Harris as President and a Democrat House, but a Republican Senate; and a Republican clean sweep.

If Trump loses, he will not accept the result  

Finally, if it is close it could take several weeks for a winner to be declared - and Trump is already laying the groundwork to claim that the election was stolen if he is declared the loser (he has said he will gladly accept the result of the election “if everything’s honest”; if not “you have to fight for the right of the country”). And in the wake of Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election, fewer than half of Republican voters are confident that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately. Sadly, a repeat of the violence on 6 January 2021 is definitely possible, although the authorities will be more prepared for it this time.

If your organisation would like a more detailed briefing on the state of the race - and crucially what the different scenarios might mean for your business - get in touch.

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